Economic and Revenue Forecast Council meeting of 12/13/23

Thank you all very much for joining the Seattle, the city of Seattle office of economic and revenue.

This meeting is being recorded.

Good morning everyone, thank you very much for joining the city of Seattle office of economic and revenue forecast council.

Today is December 13th, 2023 and the time is 1133. a.m.

We have a short agenda item here for us to take up before the conclusion of the calendar year.

And I want to thank all of the members of the forecast council who've been participating over the course of the last.

I think it's now maybe.

2 full years.

Is that right?

Director noble?

Okay.

Excellent.

Excellent.

Well, as we open up, I want to welcome again our interim finance director Jamie Cornell.

Thank you very much board member for being here.

We have Brenda swift, who is chief of staff and the council president's office on behalf of council president.

Thank you for being here.

And now.

And when we have our deputy mayor, who is our vice chair of the forecast council, deputy mayor, Washington, I will welcome her as well, but very thrilled that we have with us director of the city budgets office, director, Julie Dingley, as well as deputy director from our city central staff.

Thank you very much.

Allie Panucci director for being here as well.

I wanted to just say, thank you to the entire team at the office of economic and revenue forecast.

For all of the work that you've done, we are now officially 2 years into the process, and you have created a well run and well oil machine that's allowed for people to have access to information in real time.

As we receive the revenue forecast, quarterly updates, you are providing analysis on those forecasts.

Um, so that members of the public and members of the legislative and executive branch can receive the information and digest it.

And you've also in addition to that partnered with city budgets office and come to our finance committee meetings on a quarterly basis as well to provide a whole a holistic picture of all the revenue forecast streams.

We have been doing this in, I think, a really opportune moment to have transparency into revenue projections, especially as we continue to experience the economic impacts of the ongoing COVID pandemic and see In real time, how our city is seeking to recover both in terms of financial health and physical health.

And it's been very helpful to have the insights on a quarterly basis from you and your team director noble.

So, thank you to everybody on behalf of this council.

For initiating the office of economic remedy forecast as directed by the city of Seattle, um, a few years ago, and for getting this entity up and running as a good example of transparent and accountable governance, but also increasing access to information for the legislative and executive.

We appreciate that.

And today we really have 1 major item on the agenda in addition to adopting the minutes.

So I'm just going to go ahead and move us into adoption of the minutes and then I will turn it over to director noble to take on the 1 larger item on our agenda.

If that sounds okay to folks.

So our agenda consists of adoption of the meeting minutes from October 17th, 2023, and then we will get into the proposed policy governing confidential requests made of the office of economic and revenue forecast.

This is a conversation we teed up at the last meeting and here we are concluding that discussion prior to the end of the year on the 1st item adoption of the minutes.

I just want to see if there's a motion to adopt the minutes from the October 17th, 2023 meeting.

So motion.

Thank you very much Board Member Carnell, and I will second that.

It's been moved and seconded to adopt the meeting minutes.

Are there any comments?

Hearing none, all in favor please, oh, excuse me, Director Dengle, please go ahead.

Thank you and good morning.

I just wanted to let the Chair know that Deputy Mayor Washington has asked to be her proxy for this meeting today, so I'll be taking votes in her stead.

Oh, perfect.

Well, welcome and always happy to have you here in these meetings, but happy to have you here as a voting member here today as well.

Um.

If there's no additional comments on the meeting minutes from October 17th, 2023, let's go ahead and move forward on the adoption of those all in favor.

Please say aye.

Any opposed the assumptions it is unanimous the minutes will reflect from our meeting today, December 13th, 2023 that there was unanimous approval of the October 17th meeting minutes.

And as you will see in those meeting minutes, we began discussing the next agenda item, which is the policy proposal that director noble and his team.

Teed up to identify a process and strategies and direction for how the office of economic and revenue forecasts will navigate any confidential requests made to the office of economic and revenue forecast.

So that we can ensure transparency and also due diligence and trying to ensure that research and policy options have the ability to get vetted and.

and evaluated prior to raising any alarm bells.

But we do want to make sure that the Office of Economic and Revenue Forecast is able to maintain its independence and also be able to provide confidential analysis to each entity.

And then upon completion of those analyses, we want to also make sure that in order to maintain the trust that the Office of Economic and Revenue Forecast is seeking to build with members of the legislative branch and the executive branch, we wanted to put forward a policy that helps to identify the process for how information will be shared.

Again, I want to thank Director Noble for teeing up this discussion and crafting the initial policy for our consideration.

And at the last meeting on October 17th, we talked about some minor tweaks that would be desired by the Council before finalizing the policy.

And since our meeting, Director Noble has taken that direction.

and put together a slightly revised version that maintains the integrity of the initial draft as proposed and helps to identify some strategies for navigating the dynamics between the executive and the legislative branch just to ensure that full vetting of policies can occur prior to sharing or disclosing information before it's really ready for discussion and collaboration between the two branches of government.

Uh, with that, I'll turn it over to director noble to provide an update on the previous meeting that we had and then to show us the proposed policy that could conclude this item for us.

Thank you director noble.

And thank you, Chair Mosqueda.

You've done a wonderful job of introducing us.

I think what I'm going to do is put up a PowerPoint, which is largely the same as last time, just hit on a couple points that you mentioned, but then really just want to highlight the specific elements of the proposed policy, and in particular, the minor addition that has been made per your, I think, very, very helpful suggestion.

So with that, let me put this up and get it in the right format.

So here we are today.

So you've already discussed this, and just to highlight, why do we think such a policy is needed?

And again, it fundamentally comes down to the fact that the neutrality and the trust in this office is essential to its primary function, which is doing the revenue forecasting.

But we have given an expertise here, and we want to make it available to both branches in terms of doing research, particularly about fiscal issues, revenue, and others as well.

And in doing that, And our charter lets us, if you will, do that separately for each branch.

But it occurred to us that as those results of those kinds of work come to fruition and are ultimately made public, that if we're not careful about the way that they are made public, there's a potential to undermine the sense of trust.

That if we do some research that is used by, say, the executive branch or really either branch to support something out in public, it might be perceived that we, the office, were making a policy Statement in support of that proposal, um, and that that would not be the case because that's not our job, but, um, the perception might be there.

Um, and that 1 way to avoid any, uh, concern about that, or to avoid that, that the potential impact on trust would be to.

take the opportunity in advance of any kind of public discussion to inform the other branch about the work that had been done.

And to do that in a reasonably timely way, but again, but not in a way that would preclude either branch being able to have this really important, privileged, and confidential research done on their behalf.

So that's the why.

Sorry, I'm facing a little bit of delay here.

So let me talk about just the key points, and then I'll get to the one that's highlighted in yellow, which is the change from last time.

So this slide is essentially as it was at our last meeting, except for number five.

So again, just in terms of the just sharing of information between the branches, I want to be clear about one thing, is that we are, as any public agency, subject to public disclosure rules of the state.

So nothing in this policy can supersede that, nor does it try, if you will.

The other thing is that if we do research for either branch and it doesn't go anywhere, then we don't need to share it, if you will.

So work that's completed that isn't made public, that can just go on the shelf.

So that's sort of a working materials notion there.

Another point that I thought would be important is about transparency, in terms of that if we do work and either branch is going to rely on it, that it be attributed to us.

This could come up, for instance, and we'll talk about this in a second, in the context of a fiscal note, where we contribute some work to a fiscal note.

And I thought it'd be important that if that was the case, that it be cited as such.

So again, that both parties and the public would know where the information was coming from.

Now, the key element in my mind of the policy is this next one, which is there's no surprises.

And I realize I spelled surprises wrong, and I can't change it here as I sit.

Oh, well.

Again, the notion here is that before either branch uses our research in a public way, that we be given an opportunity to brief the other branch so that they are not surprised by our work.

Because that, again, feels like a place where trust could get undermined, even if unintentionally so.

So we set out the notion of a standard of two to three business days of notification, thus allowing the requester to still make their policy statement in a timely way, but giving the other branch some notice as to what to expect and where the work came from.

The one notion, and what was described here is that if there is additional time needed, the director, myself, or successor could make that judgment.

The one thing that we talked about last time, though, was the idea that there could be a real advantage in the briefing that happens for the branch that didn't request the work, to have that happen jointly with the branch that did request the work and the forecast office present together so that they would get a holistic view rather than one view and then another, if you will, or rather not the whole picture.

So what we've added to the policy is a recommendation that whenever possible and appropriate, that the briefing of, again, the loose language here of the other branch be scheduled as a joint meeting, including us and then whoever had requested the work.

I think that's an important addition.

It's highlighted here.

You all have the text of the longer form, and it's essentially repeated with that effective wording.

Just then to hit on the other couple items, the fiscal notes, we noted them as sort of an exception.

There's a whole established city policy and procedure and protocol about how legislation gets dropped, if you will, and shared with the other branch.

And to the extent that we're just contributing to a fiscal note, We don't think this pre-notification is required.

Everybody understands that legislative process.

We would then immediately follow up to offer a briefing, and in this context, a joint briefing as well.

But that's that notion there.

It is an exception, but one that is replaced and said by an existing set of protocols and policies.

And then just lastly, on the scope of what's shared, We anticipate that as we do and as we develop our financial analyses, we may have, in order to do those well, we may have had to ask a number of privileged questions that touch on law or on other aspects of the policy.

And that in general, we would not be sharing that kind of information.

We would rely on the branch that had requested it to provide the overall context.

And that would really limit our work and our sharing of work to the essential part of what we had done, which would largely be the fiscal analysis or the financial analysis, depending on the exact request.

So that was the basic policy.

And again, I think folks were generally on board.

There was this, I think, important addition about making sure that whenever possible, that the briefings that we offer to the other branch happen jointly.

And I think that's, if you will, a friendly amendment.

And the policy has been redrafted with that addition.

And that's really the whole story at this point.

And then thank you very much director noble.

Um, let's just pause there real quick.

Um, and I know that many people have the full policy proposal in front of them as well.

Um.

About a paragraph or a paragraph and a half that had been added to help flush out that concept of joint joint briefing.

I want to thank you for the work that you've done on that.

I think that that is a workable approach.

It also doesn't like trigger an arbitrary 3 day timeline that might not be totally in line with when the policy briefing could occur.

And I think that, you know, as director daily, and I both commented on in the last meeting, I think there's always interest in ensuring that there's transparency between the entities.

We also want to maintain the integrity of the office to be able to do independent analysis and we don't want to compromise that in any way.

And I think the, the approach that you've crafted helps us do that without.

Kind of a day timeline, but just with the expectation that once something is developed, if it's developed using data and analysis from the department, of course, it gets credited.

But then the other branch that might not have been involved in the crafting and thinking through the policy gets a chance to tell the other branch and then has the ability to bring you in to explain the assumptions baked into that.

So I think that it works from my perspective.

Are there any other thoughts from board members?

Council members.

No, just seeing lots of nods.

Okay, I'll turn it back.

Oh, excuse me, Director Dingley, please go ahead.

Thank you.

I just wanted a note of gratification to Director Noble and his team.

I think that these edits that are here on this proposed policy really reflect the conversation that we had the last time we were together.

And I just appreciate the thoughtfulness that went into going to thinking through that this is a new office and we need to develop sort of what these policies look like.

And so just appreciate the team's time.

Great, thank you.

Okay, I'll turn it back to Director Noble for next steps here.

Yes, so in terms of next steps, I think a motion to adopt the policy from members of the council.

And once it is adopted, we will then be in a position to work with both branches as we move forward to implement it and be sure that appropriate sharing, if you will, occurs when appropriate and necessary.

Great, and I will just say I thank you for your participation here today, council members, because it was my hope that we wrap this item up before the end of my time on Seattle City Council, which Um, will be on January 2nd, but assuming that we weren't going to have a meeting on January 2nd, I really wanted to get this completed so that the new.

Council members of the office and economic and revenue forecast council could come in with this policy settled.

So I am happy to entertain a motion to approve.

The policy that directs the office of economic and revenue forecast and the forecast council members here governing confidential requests made of the office.

Is there a motion to approve the proposed policy?

I moved to adopt the proposed policy as stated.

Thank you council member swift.

Is there a 2nd.

2nd, thank you council member.

Dingley.

Okay.

It has been moved and 2nd it any additional comments.

Hearing none, thank you again for drafting this in a timely fashion.

Director Noble and the team at Office of Economic and Remedy Forecast all in favor of the proposed policy governing confidential request made of the office, please say aye.

Aye.

Any opposed?

Any abstentions it is unanimous.

Thank you so much.

Uh, we will make sure that that document is, um, recorded in the minutes for today as approved.

And I assume director noble that many of these documents will be posted to the website.

If people have questions in the future.

No, I should have actually said that we will, we will definitely post this to the website.

Um, the, the approved policy, um.

if not later today, tomorrow.

It's straightforward to do and draft minutes to reflect the board's approval.

Great.

Okay.

That sounds wonderful.

Well, thank you for wrapping this item up colleagues.

And I think that that does conclude all of the items on our agenda today.

I just want to say, thank you for the work that we've done passing the policy.

Was that in 2020 or 2021?

I can't remember, but we initiated this body at the beginning of 2022 and at the end of 2023, we're 2 years in.

So we are all vets at this point.

Um, and I want to thank, uh, on my colleagues as well for your generous time in attending these quarterly meetings and to director noble and the team for always making sure we're prepared that the concept of posting information and, um, in, um, in any in real time.

So that the legislative and executive branch can receive it at the same time.

Has been very helpful and to Seattle channel for broadcasting this.

It's very much in alignment with the goals that we originally envisioned of having this information shared out with members of the public as well as within city hall at the same time.

So, thank you so much.

It's been my honor to share this with all of you and thank you for your participation.

And really also want to think who is our deputy director of.

The city budgets office, or excuse me, deputy director of city council, central staff, and all of the work that she and her team, including Tom, Mike's all have done over the years on helping to get this body stood up and providing the analysis as well as our council president and chief of staff Swift.

And it's been wonderful as well.

Director Cornell to work with you here and on the service board.

I will see you tomorrow.

In fact, on service board and, of course, to director Julie Dingley on all things budget.

Uh, to you and your team, I see David on the line and everybody else.

Thank you for the work that we've done.

I know this is a separate body, a separate council, but it's been a lot of great work collaboratively together and given the changing nature of our revenue streams over the last 2 years, especially.

We would not have been able to adjust in real time without the work of the Office of Economic and Remedy Forecast.

So thanks again for all of your work to the office and to Director Noble for heading up the team.

Is there anything else for the good of the order?

Nothing else except for me to think to express my appreciation council member mosquito for your leadership and the creation of the office and your support over the last couple of years and getting this going.

It's been a real pleasure recognize it probably won't have an opportunity to express that that appreciation.

So I wanted to take that that moment to do.

So, thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you all so very much and happy holidays.

If I don't see you again, and we will wish you the best of luck with your new budget chair and new director or new new board member to come on the legislative side, both from the council president's office and the budget committee.

So, best of luck to all of you and thanks again for all the work you do on behalf of city of Seattle residents.

Take care.

Thanks everyone.

Thank you.

Thank you.